Methods for long-term forecasting of water availability in spring floods (r. Arpa – p. Jermuk)

The article discusses the main physical and geographical factors, affecting runoff of spring floods in Arpa rivers catchment station Jermuk. Also development a methodology for long-term forecasting volume flood (WIV–VI) river Arpa, study used data water discharges (station Jermuk), air temperature, precipitation, reserve snow at meteostation A linear correlation was also revealed between values annual catchment, which can be to predict runoff. To runoff, regression method obtained multivariate dependencies. Assessment statistical significance stability proposed models showed their «satisfactory» quality possibility using practice engineering hydrological forecasts.